Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 816 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 04 2019 - 00Z Wed Sep 11 2019 Expect trade winds to prevail through the period, becoming moderate to brisk in response to strengthening high pressure over the mid-latitude Pacific. Possible low pressure that some guidance shows tracking south of the state may enhance the surface gradient/winds as well. In principle the models and ensemble means continue to agree on two areas of enhanced moisture that may increase the generally windward-focused rainfall typically anticipated from such a trade pattern. The first passes over the region around Wednesday-Thursday and the second around Sunday-Monday and possibly into Tuesday. Not surprisingly the guidance spread and run-to-run variability are greater for the latter. The most notable difference at the moment is that by next Tuesday the 00Z GEFS mean shows slower progression of the moisture than consensus of remaining guidance. Thus preference leans to an average of GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF mean solutions by the first part of next week, with moisture progression sufficient to support a somewhat drier trend by next Tuesday. Rausch