Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 811 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 14 2019 - 00Z Sat Sep 21 2019 At least in principle guidance is consistent and agreeable with the forecast through early next week. An upper low initially northeast of the state will progress westward with time and likely help to weaken the gradient south of mid-latitude surface high pressure, leading to light/moderate trades over the state. At the same time an area of enhanced moisture (with some differences in exact precipitable water values) will spread across the area from southeast to northwest. Expect some enhancement of shower activity through the weekend, perhaps lingering over the northwestern islands into early next week. After early next week the models and ensemble means diverge for some details, related in part to significant differences aloft over the mid-latitude Pacific. Overall the 00Z GEFS mean appears to differ the most from other solutions, becoming deepest with a central Pacific upper trough by midweek. This trough may be playing a significant role in the GEFS mean keeping a surface trough over the state through late week and bringing up another area of high precipitable water values from lower latitudes. Among remaining guidance there is a general theme of a drier trend after the start of the week as upper ridging builds in from the east, while trades persist or perhaps become a bit stronger. There is still disagreement over the precise amount of moisture though. At this time would recommend a compromise between the 00-06Z GFS and moderately higher precipitable water values in the ECMWF/ECMWF mean. Rausch