Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Wed Oct 02 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 03 2019 - 00Z Thu Oct 10 2019

Fairly brisk trades will continue into late this week as
mid-latitude high pressure well north-northeast of the state moves
into the eastern Pacific.  Meanwhile upper level ridging to the
north and northwest of the region will consolidate gradually
farther westward.  Expect showers to focus over windward areas but
occasionally extend to other locations as well. 

Models and means are consistent in suggesting that a front will
approach/reach the northwestern islands this weekend in response
to a rapidly amplifying upper trough to the northeast of the
state.  Differences in precise amplitude of the trough persist but
models appear more agreeable than 24 hours ago with respect to the
southward extent of the front.  Rainfall along the front should be
relatively light.  Trades will weaken and likely become more
northeasterly as the front approaches/arrives this weekend. 

During the first half of next week, winds should return to a more
easterly direction and be light to moderate in strength as the
front dissipates.  By next Tuesday-Wednesday the 00Z-06Z GFS runs
and 00Z GEFS mean keep more upper troughing to the north of the
state versus most other guidance, while the GEFS mean is most
pronounced with its push of drier air from the north.  Preference
would be to lean half or more away from these more extreme aspects
of the guidance.  

Rausch