Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 AM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019 Valid 00Z Fri Oct 04 2019 - 00Z Fri Oct 11 2019 Upper-level ridging across Hawaii is forecast by all guidance to weaken/shift westward as a trough/upper low digs southward northeast of the state this weekend into early next week. Trades are forecast to weaken as this occurs, but until then, moderate trades (20-25 kt) along with PWs near 1.50 inch will result in scattered to numerous windward and mauka showers through the end of the week. A cold front is expected to approach Hawaii this weekend as the upper trough amplifies. Model and ensemble guidance show consensus that any shower activity associated with the front should dissipate north of Hawaii, and weakening trades as the front approaches may actually result in an overall decrease in shower activity. By the middle of next week, models show some consensus that a tropical disturbance may approach Hawaii from the east. Solutions differ on the specific timing and intensity of this feature, but a surge of deeper tropical moisture (PWs in excess of 2 inches in both the ECMWF and the GFS forecasts) and an associated increase in shower activity does appear possible by the middle of next week. Ryan