Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2019

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 05 2019 - 00Z Tue Nov 12 2019

A weakening stationary front will slowly dissipate between Kauai
and Oahu which will enhance shower activity over the northwest
islands. Precipitable water values near 1.50 inches will linger
for a few more days as a brief surge in tropical moisture sneaks
up from the south on Tuesday. Overall, rainfall amounts should be
mostly light to modest with occasional terrain-favored higher
amounts. By Wednesday, heights will rise as upper ridging noses in
from the west, but will then fall ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough. This will carry a cold front toward the
region by the end of the week. In the interim, trades will
decrease late Thursday into early Friday as the pressure gradient
relaxes. By late Friday into Saturday, cold front is forecast to
approach Kauai and likely stall over the northwest islands. A weak
wave or two may develop along the weakening boundary this weekend
into next Monday as the boundary slowly dissipates. GFS was slower
to raise heights by next Monday compared to the ECMWF, but the
former was slower than its mean while the latter was quicker than
its mean. For now, a consensus forecast between the GFS/ECMWF
should suffice which clusters near the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means.


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