Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 248 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Nov 16 2019 - 00Z Sat Nov 23 2019 An upper-level trough forecast to pass northwest of Hawaii will move a cold front toward the state, expected to reach Kauai by late Fri, and stalling in the vicinity of O'ahu or Maui by Sat. Models show good consensus on this scenario, with only minor differences in the timing of the front and the location for potential stalling. Deeper moisture drawn northward along and ahead of the front should increase PWs to near or just shy of 2 inches, which should be sufficient to produce at least locally heavy rainfall Sat-Sun. By Sun, models show agreement that energy should separate from the westerlies farther north and close off an upper low near Hawaii, which may persist at least into midweek. Despite a gradual weakening of the surface front, the upper low should keep showers and locally heavy rainfall in the picture through much of next week. Resumption of moderate trades as the surface front dissipates early next week will also allow for locally heavy rainfall to focus across windward and mauka areas. Ryan