Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 18 2019 - 00Z Mon Nov 25 2019

A stationary frontal boundary across the western Hawaiian islands
is forecast to linger over the next couple days while it gradually
dissipates. PWs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range in the vicinity of
the front will continue to favor areas of locally heavy rainfall.
Models/ensemble continue to show good agreement that energy should
separate from the higher latitude westerlies in the form of an
upper low that then drifts south toward Hawaii late Sun into Mon.
This feature should enhance instability, keeping areas of showers
and a few thunderstorms a possibility into the middle of the week.
After that time, models show good consensus that upper-level
ridging should begin to build overhead along with surface high
pressure north of the state, with a return of 15-25 kt trades and
advection of somewhat drier air across the state. This should
serve to keep shower activity by late in the week into next
weekend a bit more confined to favored windward and mauka areas.

Ryan