Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 27 2019 - 00Z Fri Jan 03 2020

A cold front is forecast to move eastward across Hawaii on Thu
before it is expected to stall just east of the state on Fri as it
washes out. Scattered showers with locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible, especially across the Big Island, until the front
and its associated moisture field dissipates early this weekend. A
brief period of light and variable winds is expected in the wake
of the frontal boundary, but trades should start to resume by Fri
and through the weekend as surface high pressure builds north of
Hawaii. This more typical trade pattern with isolated showers
should continue through early next week. Models show general
agreement that a shortwave should amplify and pass northwest of
Hawaii next Tue-Wed. While solutions showed some amplitude
differences, consensus was a bit above average given the time
frame. This scenario would likely move another cold front toward
the western islands by next Wed-Thu, with an associated increase
in showers and disruption of the trades. At this time the guidance
does not indicate the moisture plume with next weeks's front will
be as significant as the one this week.

Ryan