Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 Valid 00Z Mon Dec 30 2019 - 00Z Mon Jan 06 2020 Upper ridging will build to the north and northeast of the region through Tuesday. Trades will increase as high pressure strengthens north and east of the region (1032-1034mb Monday into early Tuesday) with isolated showers possible along favored windward areas. By early Wednesday, trades will slacken a bit as guidance shows a shortwave passing east of 170W reaching about 160W by early Thursday. The 00Z Canadian/UKMET were a bit quicker and weaker than the 00Z GFS and ECMWF, each of which showed a closed low. The 00Z ECMWF was near its ensemble mean and was slower than the GFS, but the 00Z GEFS mean was slower than the ECMWF ensemble mean. Prefer a solution between the GFS and ECMWF at this time in the middle of the spread. Cold front will push through much of the island chain from NW to SE starting next Thursday, reaching the Big Island next Saturday. With the trough axis forecast to lie east of 155W even in the farther west ECMWF (GFS near 160W), expect the front to just slip past the Big Island next weekend. It appears that deeper tropical moisture may not be tapped from the ITCZ even in the more aggressive ensemble scenarios, but some modest rain is possible nonetheless, especially over the northwestern islands. Fracasso