HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 719 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 VALID 00Z SUN JAN 19 2014 - 00Z SUN JAN 26 2014 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND AGREEABLE WITH THE OVERALL FCST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THEN DEVELOP SPREAD WITH SOME DETAILS SFC/ALOFT. A WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE ISLANDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SUN-MON. ASSOC PCPN SHOULD BE LGT. LATEST SOLNS STILL SHOW A MUCH STRONGER FRONT CROSSING THE REGION AROUND WED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RNFL. AS WAS THE CASE 24 HRS AGO THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE ISLANDS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF... BUT DUE TO THE GFS RUNS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT BY THU THEY PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SEWD AWAY FROM THE STATE. BY FRI-SAT THE GFS STRAYS TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH A CLOSED LOW THAT MAY FORM TO THE E OF THE ISLANDS. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS CLOSER TO REMAINING GUIDANCE WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ULTIMATELY WOULD RECOMMEND A GEFS/ECMWF MEAN COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS IN MIND... PREFER AN INTERMEDIATE FRONTAL TIMING/PROGRESSION FROM WED ONWARD. A COMPROMISE SEEMS REASONABLE TO THE NW OF THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER COUPLE SFC FRONTS CLOSER TO THE AREA THAN OTHER SOLNS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE GFS EVOLUTION TO THE E MAY CAUSE ITS UPSTREAM FRONTS TO BE HELD TOO FAR BACK. RAUSCH