HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 714 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 VALID 00Z TUE JAN 21 2014 - 00Z TUE JAN 28 2014 OVER THE PAST DAY THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE REMAINING MAJORITY CLUSTER FOR THE FCST FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD... LEADING TO SOMEWHAT REDUCED SPREAD IN THE LATEST ARRAY OF GUIDANCE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL PACIFIC WILL BRING A COUPLE COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. A LEADING VERY DEEP STORM WILL ANCHOR A STRONG FRONT THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLANDS AROUND WED... BRINGING A BAND OF MDT TO POTENTIALLY HVY RNFL AND BREEZY CONDS. RECENT TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR LEANING MORE TOWARD ECMWF RUNS THAT CONTINUE TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ISLANDS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MSTR. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT THU-FRI WITH PWATS LIKELY TO DECREASE BELOW 0.75 INCH FOR A TIME AT SOME LOCATIONS. THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE NEXT CNTRL PAC SYSTEM WELL N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE THIRD SYSTEM IN THE SERIES WILL LIKELY REACH FARTHER SWD BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z/06Z GFS ARE STRONGER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT BY NEXT WEEKEND... HELPING TO HOLD BACK THE SFC FRONT RELATIVE TO THE GUIDANCE AVG... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME REMAINING SPREAD WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SO FAR CONTINUITY/TRENDS HAVE GREATLY FAVORED THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE NERN PAC/NWRN NOAM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE WOULD AT LEAST HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN WHICH BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ISLANDS AROUND SUN. RAUSCH