HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 717 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 VALID 00Z SUN JAN 26 2014 - 00Z SUN FEB 02 2014 SW FLOW AHEAD OF WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AND NO LONGER STALL IT ACROSS THE REGION... SO ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED... FAVORING NE FACING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. FOR MIDWEEK... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH VEERING WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST... BUT STILL BRISK... AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. BY SAT/D7 THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW ABOUT 400-500 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF KAUAI BUT FALLS ON THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER/WEAKER BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS ALSO QUITE STRONG AND JUST TO THE NW OF THE ECMWF. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FALL ABOUT 1/3 IN BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF... JUST AHEAD OF THE 06Z GFS... BUT THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... MORE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NW ISLANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. FRACASSO