HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 730 AM EST SUN MAR 02 2014 VALID 00Z MON MAR 03 2014 - 00Z MON MAR 10 2014 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND... A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY...PLACING THE ISLANDS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STOUT JET FROM MAUI COUNTY EASTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO 1.50-1.75 INCHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...AND SOME OF THE NORMALLY DRIER SOUTH AND WESTWARD FACING SLOPES MAY BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RAIN RATES. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END RAIN TOTALS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST CELL MOTIONS. PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GFS WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND THE HEAVIER NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ARE MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SECOND AND SIMILAR SYSTEM...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS DEEP...ARRIVES TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY. BURKE