Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion...Corrected paragraph 2 typo
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2014

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 08 2014 - 00Z Tue Jul 15 2014

Over the central Pacific, the 7/00Z forecast cycle did a decent
job of maintaining continuity at the surface and aloft through day
4 with the Subtropical Ridge configuration and its interaction
with a rather deep cyclone entering the western Gulf of Alaska.

The Hawai'i medium range forecast could easily be a
straight-forward one heading through day 5 into day 6, even though
chaos STILL 'reigns supreme' across the northeast Pacific. That is
because the surface high invof 40N 140W and the eastern flanks of
the Subtropical Ridge extend far enough into the Subtropics to
keep trades moderate to brisk at times. This day 5-6 forecast
period appears to be more of a wind direction rather than an
intensity challenge, owing itself to the rather chaotic solutions
related to the structure of the Subtropical Ridge and over the
mid-latitude Pacific.

And again today, would think that hinging any sort of trend from
the deterministic 7/00Z solutions---is very risky. Part of the
forecast 'risk'  is related to the mid-latitude flow pattern and
'goings-on' over the entire western Pacific with remnant energy
from super-typhoon 08W 'Neoguri' entrained in the westerlies.
There really has been NO continuity with this part of the medium
range forecast once that system sweeps poleward of 40N latitude
invof Japan.

For today, recommend an equally-weighted blend of the 7/00z
NAEFS-ECENS-GEFS to account for the wide deterministic spread
across the northern Pacific after day 5.

Vojtesak