Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
732 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2014

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 18 2014 - 00Z Fri Jul 25 2014


...Tropical Wave this Weekend...

The trades are forecast to be interrupted by a tropical wave
approaching Hawai'i from the southeast this weekend. The
operational ECMWF has been fairly consistent with the handling of
this system for several runs now. The 00Z/17 high-resolution ECMWF
indicates that the heart of the low- to mid-level circulation and
deep-layer moisture should pass just east of the island chain
Saturday through Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a plume of precipitable
water in excess of 2.00 inches affecting the state during this
time period. The plume is capable of fueling many inches of
rainfall, so the ultimate positioning of moisture maxima will bear
strongly on how Hawai'i is affected. Once the disturbance lifts to
the northwest of the state by the middle of next week, the trades
should resume.


Cisco