Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 30 2014 - 00Z Wed Aug 06 2014

Mid-latitude stagnation--in the Pacific flow pattern--offers some
degree of ensemble agreement for upper-level troughing along 150W
longitude.

The 29/00Z ECENS/GEFS for a slow northeastward migration of a
closed h5-to-sfc low through the central gulf of Alaska and
maintain a surface ridge to the northeast of the Hawai'ian Islands
into day 6 (4/00Z).  

This allows remnants of 'Genevieve' to pass south of the islands
and maintain a general track along 20N latitude through the
upcoming weekend.

Unfortunately, the deterministic GFS/ECMWF agree that it will be
an active period in the tropical east Pacific with additional
tropical disturbances progged to develop invof 15N 125W (an
origination region/point) around day 3 (Friday)...and follow a
track that is a tad north and west of where 'Genevieve' is progged
to move through time.

Can see merit in blending pieces of the GFS/ECMWF deterministic
with their means to handle the next 7 days.

Please monitor/consult more detailed information from the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center concerning
tropical weather developments.

Vojtesak