Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Sun Oct 05 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 06 2014 - 00Z Mon Oct 13 2014

Latest guidance and satellite loops still suggest that the passage
of a series of mid-upper level trough energies to the north and
the stalling of a front northwest of the islands through early
next week leads to weakened lead surface pressure gradients over
the state. This supports a pattern with Hawaiian land/sea breeze
showers this weekend into midweek...with a gradual transition to
modest trades late week into next weekend as a supporting eastern
Pacific ridge builds. This occurs well in advance of the track of
a powerful extratropical low associated with current west Pacific
Typhoon Phanfone that passes well to the north of Hawaii. A
trailing frontal push underneath should stall northwest of the
state into next weekend. Lead trade moisture over the islands
should continue to fuel some island showers under a mean weakness
aloft that lingers as per a prefered composite of reasonably
compatable models and ensembles mid-larger scale guidance.

Schichtel