Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2014

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 08 2014 - 00Z Wed Oct 15 2014

The ECENS/GEFS from 7/00z were in average agreement through the
weekend with the overall flow pattern across the northern Pacific,
and more importantly---the Subtropics. The entrainment of western
Pacific tropical moisture and dynamics seems to be where the
bigger differences 'crop up' around the 12/12z time frame.

Likewise, the 7/00Z ECENS/GEFS were in average agreement with a
closed mid-level disturbance migrating southwestward---from the
east central Pacific towards Hawai'i. Much of the 00Z
deterministic guidance (ECMWF-GFS-Canadian) carry enough 500mb
vorticity between 13/00Z and 14/12Z invof the forecast area to
warrant---at this point---a mention for the day 6-7 time frame. A
blend of the 7/00Z ECENS and GEFS would cover the mass field
forecasts for depth and forward (westward) motion of the mid-level
feature--but minimize the reflection of the feature at the
surface.

Vojtesak