Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 813 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2014 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 12 2014 - 00Z Sun Oct 19 2014 ...Possible Late-Season Tropical Cyclone to Affect Hawai'i Next Week... The global numerical models indicate that Hawai'i will remain solidly in the trades for the next week. Patchy deep-layer moisture should pass across the state from the southeast, enhancing shower activity. What has changed in the guidance since yesterday is the apparent emergence of a tropical cyclone from the ITCZ late next week. Both the 00Z/11 parallel GFS and ECMWF track the strengthening low to the south of the state, then begin to curve it to the right shortly after passing the longitude of the middle of the island chain. Of course, much depends on the realization of this system and its track. Even with the southerly track, the GFS indicates a half-foot of rain for the southeastern tip of the Big Island for the five-day period ending 00Z/19 Sunday. Cisco