Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 13 2014 - 00Z Mon Oct 20 2014


...Possible Late-Season Tropical Cyclone to Affect Hawai'i Next
Week...

The global numerical models indicate that Hawai'i will remain in
the trades until about Sunday October 19 when a cold front settles
toward the northern islands. Meanwhile, the guidance continues to
depict the emergence of a tropical cyclone from the ITCZ late next
week. Both the 00Z/12 parallel GFS and ECMWF track the
strengthening low to the south of the state along 14N or 15N. The
GFS is more bullish than the ECMWF with rainfall over the islands
during the next week, with several inches of QPF in favored
terrain. Yesterday's guidance did not introduce the cold front, so
expect that the westerlies are probably not sorted properly
yet--hence, stay tuned.


Cisco