Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 824 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014 Valid 00Z Tue Oct 14 2014 - 00Z Tue Oct 21 2014 ...Chances Increasing for Tropical Cyclone to Affect Hawai'i... The global numerical models continue to indicate that Hawai'i will remain within the trades into the upcoming weekend, when a cold front will bottom out zonally just north of the islands. Before the cold front settles to a halt, a tropical cyclone approaching from the east-southeast will likely affect the state as early as Friday, with the ocean stirred up even earlier. In their 2AM HST Tropical Weather Update, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave the surface low 1025 miles to the east-southeast of Hilo an eighty-percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the subsequent forty eight hours. Both the 00Z/13 ECMWF and parallel-GFS suggest landfall on the Big Island 1200Z Saturday October 18, with the parallel-GFS stalling the system over the state into early next week. Because of the stalling, the parallel-GFS QPF is much greater for the state than the ECMWF--with upwards of 13.00" indicated on Mauna Loa. Cisco