Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 20 2014 - 00Z Mon Oct 27 2014

...'Ana' continues to be a sensible weather threat...

The 19/00Z ECENS/GEFS ensembles and their deterministic runs
anchor both sides of the ensemble forecast envelope through day
3---and easily fit within the current CPHC forecast for 'Ana'.
Please refer to the Honolulu forecast office and Central Pacific
Hurricane Center (CPHC) for all the latest information on 'Ana'.

The forecast for Hawai'i settles down considerably on Monday and
Tuesday as surface ridging builds north of the state and anchors
along 30N latitude through the end of day 7 (next Sunday). 

Of note, the poleward re-curvature of 'Ana' and its entrainment
into the mid-latitude westerlies on/after day 5 remains a
significant forecast challenge. The forecast challenge being---its
migration downstream across the eastern half of the Pacific and
southern Gulf of Alaska. Relied on the 19/00Z ECENS mean for the
north central Pacific for days 6-7 to handle the wide variety of
possibilities.

Vojtesak