Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 AM EST Sun Nov 02 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 03 2014 - 00Z Mon Nov 10 2014

Models and ensembles are in a bit better agreement today with the
forecast mid-week as mid-level ridging is split to the northeast
and northwest of the region. Troughing and an associated surface
cold front should approach the islands but has more support to
stay just north of Kauai, which will have the best chance of
showers. PW values should stay above climo values but QPF is
forecast to be rather typical. By later in the week, ensemble
spread increases as Typhoon Nuri recurves in the western Pacific
and throttles eastward toward the Bering Sea... but how quickly
remains a sticking point. Troughing or a closed low should develop
to the north or northeast of Hawai'i Fri-Sun but the 00Z ECMWF
lies on the SW side of the spread. A compromise between it and the
00Z GFS should suffice.


Fracasso