Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
639 AM EST Fri Nov 07 2014

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 08 2014 - 00Z Sat Nov 15 2014

Models and ensembles reasonably agree upon a similar overall flow
pattern for the Hawaiian islands for much of the next week. In
this active flow, a series of highly amplified mid-upper level
troughs steadily progress along but with most dynamics to the
north of the islands in most ernest today/Saturday and again by
next midweek. Each will force an associated trailing cold front
down across the islands along with enhanced moisture and rainfall
potential. The lead front works across state Friday into the
weekend, but with possible nearby stalling could provide a renewed
Big Island frontal/moisture focus leading in advance of the second
frontal arrival next Wednesday/Thursday. The expected building of
an increasingly amplified upstream mid-upper level west-central
Pacific ridge by then leads us to lean more on the somewhat more
amplified side of the full envelope of solutions, more in line
with the 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles next Thursday.

Schichtel