Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 730 AM EST Sat Nov 08 2014 Valid 00Z Sun Nov 09 2014 - 00Z Sun Nov 16 2014 Models and ensembles reasonably agree upon a similar overall mid-larger scale flow pattern for the Hawaiian islands for much of the coming week, so prefer an overall composite solution that mitigates lingering smaller scale guidance variance. In the short term, the historicly deep extratropical low associated with former super typhoon Nuri has moved into the Bering sea. Well underneath, water vapor imagery shows potent closed low development just to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands as dynamic impulse energy digs sharply to the lee of an amplified upstream north-central mid-upper level ridge built in advance of the Nuri. This is forcing a cold front with some organized showers through the state as per the Ocean Prediction Center and local radar. Expect more breezy conditions in the wake of frontal passage this weekend. This closed system is kicked northeastward Sunday in response to the steady approach of upstream mid-upper level troughing to the lee of a building western Pacific mid-upper level ridge. Most energy holds north of the islands as numerous flow embedded impulses work through/into the mean trough position, but this pattern should support several trailing cold frontal surges down into the islands by around midweek and again heading into next weekend along with some enhanced moisture and shower potential. Schichtel