Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EST Mon Dec 01 2014

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 02 2014 - 00Z Tue Dec 09 2014

Expect moderate trades to continue at least through Thu as
weakening high pressure well to the north of the state is replaced
by an upstream high on Thu.  Primarily windward shower activity
should be lightest early this week with precipitable water values
forecast to be near or below an inch Mon-Tue before increasing
somewhat thereafter.  Models and ensembles still have some details
to work out during the late week/weekend time frame but in
principle are in much better agreement than they had been the
previous two days.  Current consensus now indicates that the
southern edge of the westerlies will have sufficient influence to
keep the greatest deep moisture more suppressed than some earlier
GFS/GEFS runs.  Given ECMWF/EC mean continuity as well as GFS
trends and less extreme parallel GFS runs, it seems reasonable to
lean more toward ECMWF-based solutions where differences persist. 
The best opportunity for some increase in moisture should be
around Fri-Sat.  Confidence is now greater that trade flow should
persist, albeit somewhat on the weak side with elongated east-west
surface ridging to the north of the state likely no stronger than
1020mb or so.  By late in the period Sun-Mon the 06z GFS is a
notable extreme in showing less of a ridge aloft building over the
area, so at that time would recommend a blend of other guidance.

Rausch