Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 20 2015 - 00Z Tue Jan 27 2015

Recent model and ensemble forecast spread and uncertainty has been
quite low for the next week. Predictability remains above average
and a preferred composite model and ensemble blend acts to smooth
any of the rougher smaller scale details.

A main mid-latitude storm track channels north of the state
overtop an east-west oriented mid-upper level ridge centered over
subtropical west-central Pacific to the southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands. Trades remain generally disrupted in this pattern and we
expect a fairly quite weather period into late week.

Significant Pacific flow amplification later in the week though,
including development of a strong and slowly progressive mid-upper
level trough to the northwest then north of the state, should then
force an organized frontal approach into the state by Friday that
moves across the islands over the weekend. This amplified system
offers increased potential for a return of veered lead moisture
inflow across the state that may fuel some heavier local downpours.

Schichtel