Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 29 2015 - 00Z Thu Feb 05 2015

The 28/00Z ECENS/GEFS and their deterministic runs were "in-line"
with the current Hawai'i forecasts into the day 5 period (3/00Z).
An upper-level low and associated 500mb-700mb layered trough axis
expected invof 160W---will likely develop a surface reflection and
low-level wave along 30N latitude.

The deterministic and ensemble mean solutions do vary considerably
at this time frame---with respect to the overall structure and
migration of the parent upper-level circulation (invof 164W).
Enough so, to recommend a blend of the GEFS/ECENS at/around 3/00Z
and beyond.

This recommendation would not alter the progression of a notable
surface front across the Islands---in the Tuesday/Wednesday time
frame (day 6-7). Rather, it will broad-brush the lat/long
placement of one or more surface waves---which could be developing
along the surface front between 140W-160W. The 28/00z ECMWF
deterministic solution would be the more aggressive solution in
the Subtropics during this time frame. Worth watching out
for---but not worth wholesale changes at this point in time.

Vojtesak