Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 718 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015 Valid 00Z Sat Jan 31 2015 - 00Z Sat Feb 07 2015 The 30/00Z ECENS/GEFS means and deterministic runs continued the scenario for an unsettled sensible weather pattern. The primary features of the pattern---a deep migratory mid-latitude trough and intense surface cyclone---taking shape in the central Pacific---and slowly but effectively eroding a long wave ridge along the west coast of the North American continent. The amplitude of the upper-level trough is impressive---but not unprecedented. At 500mb---the trough axis swings eastward from 160W to 155W by day 7 (6/12Z) with the 564dm contour crossing 25N latitude. Both 30/00Z ensemble means (ECENS/GEFS) agree with the scenario and the depth of the surface cyclone (around 970mb) was reasonably positioned by the deterministic GFS/ECMWF runs---at 5/00Z---invof 39N/40N and 143W. Given the very reasonable ensemble guidance and central Pacific solution---the deterministic 30/00Z ECMWF/GFS could be utilized into day 6 with the timing of the surface front migrations across the Subtropics and the Islands. For day 7, blending the 2 means should yield good results and serve as a baseline for a steady day 8+ forecast. Vojtesak