Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 702 AM EST Sun Feb 01 2015 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 02 2015 - 00Z Mon Feb 09 2015 The 1/00Z ECENS/ECMWF continues to be the most consistent solution across the Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. Its solution feature several mid-latitude frontal passages---namely next Tuesday and Thursday. And features a deep plume of Subtropical moisture migrating northeastward into the western North America. It looked like the GEFS/GFS is strongly influenced by an erroneous solution that features an Arctic trough that migrates into the northwest Gulf of Alaska---rather than across the Canadian Rockies and downstream into the central USA (the ECMWF version). Beyond this big disconnect--- there would not be a large difference between the GEFS/ECENS aloft with 500mb heights south of 30N latitude this forecast period. The 'Subtropical Connection" and a series of surface waves along the Pacific cold front in the east central Pacific---and Subtropical Pacific...appears to be a feature of the pattern for another 7 days. Continue with the recommendation for the 1 Feb/00Z ECENS and deterministic ECMWF solution through day 6---with respect to 'track-able' shortwave energy and cyclogenesis along 35N between 140W-155W. The ECENS and its upper-level flow pattern solution anchors a series of moderately-intense surface waves north and west of Hawai'i through the period. The sequencing and evolution---handled with better overall success versus the GFS/GEFS. Vojtesak