Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 706 AM EST Mon Feb 09 2015 Valid 00Z Tue Feb 10 2015 - 00Z Tue Feb 17 2015 Guidance is consistent and agreeable early in the period, indicating passage of a strong front during Mon-Tue. One band of enhanced deep moisture/rainfall should accompany the front while a leading band of moisture currently lifting northward may bring some rainfall to the Big Island as well. Winds will be strong before and after frontal passage, southwesterly ahead of the front and then westerly or northwesterly behind it. There should be a brief period of lighter winds on Thu as a very weak surface high passes over the area. In spite of fairly similar mid level forecasts into late week there are still meaningful differences in surface evolution to the west and north of the islands by Fri-Sat. A positive development over the past 24 hours is a trend toward better agreement for timing of the cold front approaching the islands from the northwest by Sat, and also an ECMWF trend toward somewhat better definition of a southern stream wave which GFS runs have been most emphatic about over recent days. However from about late Sat onward latest GFS/GEFS mean runs become more amplified aloft than other guidance thus pushing the front farther eastward. Thus would tend to favor an average of remaining guidance for that time. Approach of the front should bring another period of fairly strong southwesterly winds Fri-Sat along with a band of rainfall near the front. Moisture associated with an upstream system tracking through the western Pacific should remain northwest of the state through next Mon. Rausch