Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 23 2015 - 00Z Mon Mar 02 2015

A trailing surface front with modest moisture/shower focus should
continue to gradually rescede and diminish today leading into a
period of drier trade flow.
Pacific flow amplification should meanwhile slow the upstream
mid-upper level trough developments to the northwest of the
islands, but model and ensemble forecast spread and uncertainty
remains below normal in the pattern. A favored guidance composite
continues to indicates that an associated frontal system advances
to the state Friday into next weekend leading to lead pooled
moisture and organized showers working more ernestly into the
islands in an increasingly wet pattern. This occurs as an
amplified downstream mid-upper level ridge settles to the
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This ridge becomes undercut by
a lower latitide closed low that guidance shows should prove slow
to approach the Big Island from the east-southeast late week.

Schichtel