Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 24 2015 - 00Z Tue Mar 03 2015

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that flow amplification
should slow ample mid-upper level trough developments just to the
northwest of the islands. A favored guidance composite continues
to indicate that an associated frontal system advances slowly into
the state Friday and slows through the upcoming weekend into early
next week. Lead pooling moisture and organized showers will
develop across the islands in an increasingly wet Hawaiian weather
pattern. This stalling occurs as an amplified downstream mid-upper
level ridge settling to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands
becomes undercut by a lower latitide closed low that guidance
shows should prove slow to approach the Big Island from the
east-southeast.

Schichtel