Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 AM EST Fri Mar 06 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 07 2015 - 00Z Sat Mar 14 2015

Short Range...
The 'winter' weather pattern in the central Pacific and Hawai'i
continues through this 7-day package. The short-term trend
continues to offer a break in the precipitation with a drier
airmass spreading northwest to southeast across the state. The
airmass is more mid-latitude rather than the trade
wind-derived---with a closed 500mb low (invof 36N 153W) and series
of mid-level troughs dominating the sensible weather. Through the
next 84 hours---the cutoff low and its mid-level energy will keep
the seasonal trade wind flow at bay. Thought the 6/00Z ECMWF/ECENS
was representative of the day 1-3 forecast.  

Medium Range...
The 6/00Z forecast cycle---including the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian
have resolved some fundamental differences in the Gulf of Alaska
and across the mid-latitude Pacific. For Hawai'i and the
Subtropics, agreement is for one 500mb cutoff low invof 36N 153W
(at 9/12Z) will migrate northeastward into coastal British
Columbia
(~12/00Z time frame)---and be replaced by another cutoff mid-level
system along 165W. This day '6-ish' (12/12Z) system and trough
reinforces a mid-latitude like low-level flow pattern and airmass
across Hawai'i. The 6/00Z ECENS and NAEFS equally represent the
day 5-7 flow pattern.

Vojtesak