Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2015

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 11 2015 - 00Z Wed Mar 18 2015

Upper trough axis is forecast to push past 155W overnight Thursday
into early Friday. Though the 500mb heights and sfc PMSL appear
fairly similar, the QPF differences between the GFS/ECMWF and
their ensembles are much more apparent. In short, the GFS and its
ensembles are wetter while the ECMWF and its ensembles are drier
by about a factor of 2-3 especially over the Big Island. Surge in
PW should be sufficient for at least some modest rains but
preference at this time lies in between since duration may be the
limiting factor. By the weekend into next week, sfc high pressure
to the northwest will weaken and flatten to the north as low
pressure passes just south of the Aleutians. Trades will veer and
diminish from northerly to northeasterly to easterly this weekend
with a slow increase in low level moisture but generally light
precipitation.


Fracasso