Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 805 AM EDT Sat May 23 2015 Valid 00Z Sun May 24 2015 - 00Z Sun May 31 2015 An upper trough/embedded closed low to the northeast of the state should quickly reload before being pushed eastward by upstream Pacific flow. Associated surface low pressure initially extends a weakening front southwestward through the Big Island and vicinity. Expect a period of northerly to northeasterly winds behind this front, with somewhat drier air likely yielding a decrease in rainfall from showers generally focused over windward locales. Winds should trend lighter early next week as trailing high pressure weakens, allowing for potentially greater influence from land/sea breeze boundaries. By the latter half of next week the surface evolution should allow for a return of more typical trade flow of light to moderate strength. During that time there is noticeably less agreement in exact details of flow aloft and the extent/duration of a possible increase of deep moisture. 00z/06z GFS runs lean to the lower side of the spread with heights aloft to the north of the state by next Sat so at the very least would lean away from those solutions aloft late in the period. Rausch