Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Tue May 26 2015

Valid 00Z Wed May 27 2015 - 00Z Wed Jun 03 2015


For most of the next week, the models indicate that Hawai'i will
be under the influence of a trough in the westerlies. Both the
00Z/26 ECMWF and the 06Z/26 GFS prognosticate the trough to begin
to shear to the east by the weekend, though a considerable pool of
deep-layer moisture in its wake may keep the state unsettled into
early next week. The ECMWF shows the approach of another trough
from the northwest late next Tuesday, though the GFS is not on
board with that wave at this point. Five-day QPF totals through
00Z/01 Monday are generally 0.10-0.25", with higher amounts into
the favored terrain. The ECMWF is especially wet over the
northeastern Big Island, with upwards of 7.00" during that period.
Whether such high amounts are realized owes much to where the
synoptic-scale forcing sets up with relation to the terrain.


Cisco