Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 05 2015 - 00Z Fri Jun 12 2015

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that trades should tend to
relax into the weekend in a pattern highlighted by mid-upper level
trough passage to the north of the state and the settling of a
trailing front and main convection focus to the northwest of the
islands. However, scattered island showers may have some moisture
to work with under a mean weakness aloft.

Guidance then shows development of a slow moving closed mid-upper
level low just to the NW of the state for much of next week. The
00/06 UTC GFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean are somewhat
more amplified with the feature compared to the rest of guidance.
This seems a closer match with latest upstream water vapor loops
and flow history. Forecast spread though seems reduced from
yesterday and overall expect near more moderate trades back over
the state as surface high pressure gradually bridges to the north
of the state.

Schichtel