Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 AM EDT Mon Jun 08 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 09 2015 - 00Z Tue Jun 16 2015

During the first half of the period an upper low will settle to
the northeast of the state, reaching its closest proximity near
26N 149W around 12z Thu.  This feature will be quickly displaced
northward in response to another upper low well north of the
islands Fri onward.  There is good consensus with the first upper
low while the 00z ECMWF/ECMWF mean are a little more amplified
than other solutions with the trough extending southward from the
second upper low.

Moderate trades should become somewhat weaker Wed into the weekend
as high pressure initially to the north tracks east-northeast and
surface pressures to the north of the islands trend lower in
response to the second upper level system.  Even with the
aforementioned differences in trough amplitude mid-late period,
solutions are more agreeable for the surface pattern over the
islands.  The one exception is the 06z GFS which briefly has
stronger than consensus inverted troughing to the north of the
area around Fri-Sat.  Thus overall would recommend a compromise
among non-06z GFS guidance at the surface and aloft.

Expect mostly windward showers during the period.  With typical
differences in the details, latest model runs suggest precipitable
water values may increase somewhat over/near the Big Island by the
weekend and early next week.

Rausch