Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 16 2015 - 00Z Tue Jun 23 2015


Hawai'i has been on the southern edge of the westerlies for some
time now, vulnerable to the shifting winds and moisture of passing
shortwaves. The latest computer models indicate that flow across
the state will adjust to leave the islands in the no-man's-land
between the westerlies and the trades at least into the weekend.
The 00Z/15 ECMWF just grazes Hawai'i with the tail end of
disturbances passing to the north for the next week, while the
06Z/15 GFS brings a cold front all the way southward to the Big
Island by next Monday. Climatology would favor the northern
solution of the ECMWF, but the time range is too great to be
deterministic. Five-day QPF from the models through 00Z/21 Sunday
is generally a tenth- to a quarter-inch, with as much as a couple
inches around Mauna Loa.


Cisco