Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2015

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 23 2015 - 00Z Tue Jun 30 2015

The latest models and ensembles show a weakness in the 700 mb flow
with anticyclones northwest and northeast of the islands, along
with a cyclonic shear axis drifting west and crossing the islands
this weekend.
The low level flow shows near normal trades most of this week,
with a series of weak low amplitude waves embedded within the
flow.  The low level winds weaken over the weekend as the 700 mb
trough is nearby. 

The gfs and ecmwf indicate mostly trade showers in windward
locations through most of the week, with an opportunity for
showers to develop in other areas once low level flow weakens over
the weekend into early next week.
The 00z ECMWF advertises a higher amplitude low level wave
approaching the islands early next week to bring an enhanced
rainfall threat, so this will be monitored with time. The 00-06z
GFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean are not as amplified as the
operational 00z ECMWF.

Petersen