Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2015

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 29 2015 - 00Z Mon Jul 06 2015

Latest guidance maintains reasonable continuity with the general
flow evolution but with some continuity adjustments for specifics.
 The overall Pacific pattern still has a retrogressive tendency
with a mean upper trough starting the period to the north of the
state and ultimately ending up to the northwest.  The first two
features within the mean trough, a wave early in the period and
then a central Pacific system with trailing front Tue-Thu, will
provide a disruption in trade flow with some degree of surface
troughing possible over the central/western islands.  Thus
continue to expect a few days of sea/land breeze boundaries having
a greater than average influence on shower activity.  There is
still a reasonable consensus that westward progression of eastern
Pacific high pressure will bring a return of more typical trade
flow by late week/next weekend.

As a whole over the past day model runs have trended more
aggressively with the amount of moisture/rainfall that may reach
the islands around Tue-Thu in association with a wave/surface low
initially near 140W.  The 06z GFS held back some but both the 00z
GFS and ECMWF indicate precipitable water values could reach
2-2.25 inches for a period of time, primarily over the Big Island.
 There is reasonable agreement that moisture levels should
gradually decline into next weekend. 

Rausch