Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 835 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2015 Valid 00Z Mon Jul 13 2015 - 00Z Mon Jul 20 2015 Enhanced tropospheric moisture is evident across the island chain as the remnants of Ela cross through the region. A mid-level circulation remains but is forecast to continue drifting northward eventually crossing the 30N latitude line by 24 to 48 hours from now. As this system departs the region, broad low-level east-southeasterly trades will dominate the pattern with a notable decrease in moisture as precipitable water values drop from approximately 2.25 inches to around 1.50 inches by early/mid week. These trade winds could occasionally pick up in intensity at times as the surface pressure gradient strengthens with a 1031-mb anticyclone building over the mid-latitudes. Toward the latter part of the week, a disturbance currently around 14N/125W is likely to become a tropical cyclone with the guidance generally carrying the system westward in time. In advance of this feature, moisture should begin to increase again over the Hawai`ian islands which should increase the coverage of windward/terrain-driven showers. This spike in enhanced moisture could be short-lived based on the 00Z ECMWF which suggests increasingly low-level northeasterlies should again carry drier air into the region for next weekend. Overall, there are a variety of solutions with this potential tropical cyclone, but it should stay far enough to the east during the period to not cause too many impacts on the sensible weather. Rubin-Oster