Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2015

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 15 2015 - 00Z Wed Jul 22 2015

Latest model and ensemble mean runs show better than average
agreement through the forecast period.  Expect fairly typical
trade flow through early next week as the state will be under the
southwestern periphery of eastern Pacific high pressure.  Strength
of the trades will vary at times with offsetting considerations. 
For example from now through Thu the surface high will be drifting
eastward but also strengthening.  Then the high will return
westward but the best gradient to the south of the high may drift
west of the islands.  There should be some enhancement of windward
focused shower activity centered around Fri when GFS/ECMWF runs
agree that a northwest-southeast oriented band of moisture will
move through the area.  This moisture initially breaks off from
the west side of the circulation of T.S. Enrique.  After the band
of 1.75-2.00 inch precipitable water values passes by, PWATs
should decrease to 1.50 inches or below with the ECMWF showing a
somewhat drier trend than 00z/06z GFS runs.  Most rainfall should
be light from the weekend into early next week though there may be
a little encouragement from a broad weakness aloft progressing
into the area from the east.

Rausch