Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 826 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2015 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 26 2015 - 00Z Sun Aug 02 2015 Short term forecast for Hawai'i looked solid and into day 3---nothing in the 25/00Z GFS/ECMWF looked out of place. Some extra mid-level cloudiness originating at low latitude may occasionally streak eastward across Kauai---but impacts appear negligible and the weak remnants of 'Enrique' continue to hold a steady and reliable course along the southern periphery of a broad central Pacific surface ridge. With support from a broad upper-level ridge spread across Hawai'i---the forecast area should be in a persistent pattern of trade wind showers through days 3/4. The 25/00Z model cycle did settle down some of the differences in the north Pacific---but continues to be unsettled in the lower latitudes...west of Mexico and east of the Marianas. Through day 4/5---the deterministic GFS/ECMWF both indicate an organized tropical wave will develop within a region of broad mid-level convection currently centered near 10N 119W (@ 25/12Z). These 2 pieces of guidance migrate the disturbance westward to about 15N 140W by day 5 (30/12Z). After this time frame---they part ways. The ECMWF taking the system south of Hawai'i along 15N and 155W (by 2/00Z). Meanwhile--- the GFS slows the system down and tracks it northwest to a position near 20N 150W by 2/00Z. Would suggest a blend of the two would work at those time frame---given their reasonable agreement with this synoptic-scale feature. The same is essentially true for a broad region of cloudiness currently near 15N 175W. As this disturbance organizes downstream and tracks towards the Marianas---the ECMWF becomes the faster solution between 30/12Z and 2/00Z---and a considerably deeper one versus the GFS. Vojtesak