Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 15 2015 - 00Z Sat Aug 22 2015


The 14/00Z forecast cycle maintains an active ITCZ across the
Pacific---and to its north---an anchoring westerly Subtropical jet
'draped' along 20N. These features help maintain a
quasi-stationary TUTT cell location near 30N 160W through 19/12z.
Then a subtle shift to the southwest to 27N 165W for 20/12Z.

Following a blend of the ECENS/GEFS means should maintain the
pattern through day 7---and 'hedging' to the deterministic 14/00Z
ECMWF to day 5 (19/12Z) for the smaller-scale details would allow
for better representation of the TUTT and its relationship to the
Subtropical Jet/ITCZ-induced mid-level moisture stream transiting
Hawai'i. And in addition, this piece of guidance will reasonably
introduce, track and represent a rather benign tropical 'wave'
currently near 20N 138W to the forecast area for days 2-4.

Vojtesak