Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 22 2015 - 00Z Sat Aug 29 2015


...All Eyes on Tropical Depression Three-C...

The models indicate that Hawai'i will remain near the boundary
between the westerlies and the trades for the foreseeable future.
The regime is an unsettled and wet one, with or without
hurricanes, so rainfall will likely continue above normal, with
low predictability of wiggles in both streams. Tropical Depression
Three-C appears most threatening to the state if and when it may
recurve. The recurvature, as with most tropical cyclones, owes
much to the gate-keeper polar jet. In the case of the GFS, an
unusual amplification of a trough just east of the region late
next week seems pivotal. The ECMWF is not as deep with that
trough. Five-day QPF through 00Z/27 Thursday in both the GFS and
ECMWF is at least an inch statewide, with many inches in the
terrain. Both models--recurvature or no--give Kaua'i and O'ahu two
to three inches in that period.


Cisco