Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2015

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 28 2015 - 00Z Fri Sep 04 2015

The 27/00Z Hawai'i RAOBs depict a light and variable wind profile
to 500mb, high CAPE values, -5 to -6 LIs, and above normal PW
values. This tropical moisture influence and no tradewind
inversion should continue to be a persistence forecast for the
next two days---before something 'resembling' more of an
east-northeasterly tradewind (and inversion) returns over the
weekend. The normal trade wind circulation does not last for
long---but long enough to give the forecast area 'deserved' break
for what has been an unusual stretch of extremely wet August
weather. Just a quick look at the primary airport and climate
stations precipitation amounts so far---(for the most part)
display well above normal August totals.

Then next week, the unusual flow pattern returns---with the
tropical systems in the southeast Pacific -'Ignacio' and 'Jimena'-
providing another northwestward burst of moisture and instability
for the forecast area. For the latest short-term information
concerning the track and intensity forecasts for these 2
systems---please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Recent 27/00Z ECENS/GEFS ensemble guidance suggests the
combination of remnants from 'Atsani' and 'Loke' eventually erode
the 'blocky' flow invof the Dateline and 40N---but the development
of another series of quasi-stationary TUTT cells and cutoff lows
along 30N are not out of the question. Given the next two
tropicals become entrained in the 'very unseasonal' mid-level flow
regime across the Subtropical Pacific---felt a GEFS/ECENS blend
after day 4 might be the way to go with the medium range portion
of this forecast package.

Vojtesak