Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2015

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 29 2015 - 00Z Sat Sep 05 2015


Short term---
The 28/00Z Hawai'i RAOB network is beginning to indicate somewhat
of a tradewind inversion developing overhead---ie a light and
variable wind profile---or transition zone (in the 850mb-700mb
layer). This does have some forecast implications through day 3
(1/00Z). With the environment out ahead of 'Ignacio '
improving/drying out to some extent--- precursor rainfall may be
more localized rather than widespread invof 'Ignacio's' storm
track. Please refer to the latest information from CPHC concerning
'Ignacio'.

Medium range---
Beyond day 3...believe the 28/00Z ECENS/GEFS ensemble guidance
have a good depiction of mid-level flow regime---extending to
perhaps day 5. After day 5---believe the 'stronger' mid-level
ridge solution (per ECENS) will 'win out' in the subtropics and
develop continue with the theme of some 'blockiness' in the north
central Pacific. However, the 'blockiness' shifts eastward from
its current location near the Dateline to about 160W (along 40N).

Vojtesak