Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 24 2015 - 00Z Thu Oct 01 2015


The 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF track the area of thunderstorms well
southeast of Hilo into or just east of the Big Island by Sunday.
The models indicate some development of the disturbance before
then, though significant shear across the Hawai'ian islands is
likely to buffer the state from an organized cyclone. In general,
Hawai'i is progged to remain near the interface between the trades
and polar westerlies, with deep-layer tropical moisture contained
to the south of this boundary. Five-day QPF through 00Z/29 Tuesday
from the 06Z GFS is light away from the mountains, as per its
track of the tropical disturbance to the east of the state. The
00Z ECMWF is considerably heavier with its more direct pass of the
disturbance close to the Big Island, indicating half-inch or more
amounts statewide, with 3-6" on the southern and eastern sides of
the Big Island.


Cisco